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Prediction for CME (2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-30T16:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36723/-1
CME Note: Flux rope CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. CME not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source is a filament eruption seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. As this arrival signature indicates frontal impact of a CME, this is more likely the effect of the more central faint 2025-01-30T17:48Z CME rather than a glancing blow from the 2025-01-30T16:12Z CME, however both CMEs have the same filament as a source.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T15:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36750/1
Model Inputs:
2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=777.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:21Z
2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=892.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-01-30T21:26Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-01T15:22Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =13.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.6
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T16:13Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T11:15Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-02T23:45Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T09:39Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-01T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250130_212200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 8.32 hour(s)
Difference: 7.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-02-01T14:06Z

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